Electric vehicles are often presented as a central technology in the effort to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. Yet a recurring concern among engineers and consumers is that rising global temperatures could shorten the lifespan of the batteries that power these vehicles. Higher temperatures accelerate the chemical reactions inside lithium ion batteries, which can increase degradation and reduce long term performance. A new study led by Haochi Wu of the University of Michigan suggests that improvements in battery technology are advancing quickly enough to offset most of the degradation effects expected from climate change.
Wu, H., Kong, Q., Huber, M., Sun, M., & Craig, M. T. (2026). Climate change will increase high-temperature risks, degradation, and costs of rooftop photovoltaics globally. Joule, 10(1), 102218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2025.102218
Wu conducted the research while working as a visiting doctoral student at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, examined how battery durability may change as global temperatures rise. To do this, the research team combined electric vehicle simulations with experimentally calibrated models of battery degradation and global climate projections. The framework allowed the researchers to estimate battery lifetimes across approximately 300 cities worldwide under different warming scenarios while accounting for driving behavior and environmental conditions.
Haochi Wu of the University of Michigan stated,
“More vulnerable regions are going to suffer a larger negative impact from climate change, but we’re finding technological improvements can mitigate that. That is good news.”
The analysis compared two generations of electric vehicle batteries. The first group included batteries manufactured between 2010 and 2018, which represent many of the earlier lithium ion battery systems used in electric vehicles. The second group consisted of batteries produced between 2019 and 2023, reflecting improvements in materials, design, and battery management systems. When the researchers modeled a scenario in which global temperatures increase by two degrees Celsius, they found that older batteries could experience an average lifetime reduction of about eight percent, with losses reaching as much as thirty percent in the warmest locations.
The results were notably different for newer battery systems. In the same warming scenario, batteries produced between 2019 and 2023 showed a much smaller impact. Average lifetime reductions were estimated at around three percent, with a maximum decline of about ten percent even in the hottest climates. These results indicate that the pace of technological improvement in electric vehicle batteries is currently outpacing the negative effects that higher temperatures could impose on battery longevity.
Advances in battery engineering over the past decade have contributed to these improvements. Researchers and manufacturers have refined cathode and anode materials to improve stability and energy density. Thermal management systems in modern electric vehicles have also improved significantly, allowing battery packs to maintain more stable operating temperatures during driving and charging. At the same time, software based battery management systems have become more sophisticated, controlling charging rates and operating conditions to reduce stress on battery cells and extend their useful life.
The study also revealed that technological improvements appear to hold up across a wide range of geographic conditions. Simulations across hundreds of cities showed that even in regions with high ambient temperatures the benefits of newer battery designs still outweigh the expected increases in degradation caused by warming climates. In some cases, the relative gains from modern battery systems were most pronounced in warmer regions where older batteries previously struggled with capacity loss.
However, the researchers note that their findings are based on representative electric vehicles commonly used in North America and Europe, including models such as the Tesla Model 3 and the Volkswagen ID.3. Vehicle fleets in other regions may include older battery technologies or different vehicle designs, which could experience different degradation patterns. This means that while the overall trend is encouraging, the impact of climate change on battery durability may vary depending on the technologies available in each market.
The research also connects to broader questions about how climate change will affect energy technologies more generally. In related work published in the journal Joule, members of the same research group examined how rising temperatures could influence the performance of rooftop solar panels. Their analysis suggested that high temperature risks for solar systems may be underestimated under current standards, particularly in regions that are expected to experience the most significant warming.
Taken together, these studies highlight how climate change interacts with engineering systems in complex ways. Rising temperatures introduce new operational stresses for technologies such as batteries and solar panels, yet ongoing technological improvements can also mitigate those risks. For electric vehicles in particular, the findings suggest that concerns about climate related battery degradation may become less significant as battery technology continues to evolve.
For the transition to electric mobility, the study provides evidence that durability improvements are progressing quickly enough to maintain confidence in battery performance even in a warmer future. While climate change will continue to influence engineering challenges across the energy sector, advances in battery materials, thermal management, and system design appear capable of keeping electric vehicle performance on track.
Adrian graduated with a Masters Degree (1st Class Honours) in Chemical Engineering from Chester University along with Harris. His master’s research aimed to develop a standardadised clean water oxygenation transfer procedure to test bubble diffusers that are currently used in the wastewater industry commercial market. He has also undergone placments in both US and China primarely focused within the R&D department and is an associate member of the Institute of Chemical Engineers (IChemE).
